CNN
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Millions of Americans could face massive consequences unless Speaker Kevin McCarthy can navigate out of a debt trap he has set for President Joe Biden that is instead threatening to capture his House Republicans.
The California Republican traveled to Wall Street on Monday to deliver a fresh warning that the House GOP majority will refuse to lift a cap on government borrowing unless Biden agrees to spending cuts that would effectively neutralize his domestic agenda and neuter his White House legacy.
McCarthy also assured traders, however, that he would never let the US government default on its obligations – a potential disaster that could halt Social Security payments, trigger a recession and unleash job cuts by the fall in the event that the debt ceiling is not raised.
This is where the risk to Americans comes in. It’s hard to see how a rookie speaker, with a tiny majority and a conference containing plenty of extremists, can engineer either of these outcomes.
Most countries don’t require the legislature to raise the government’s borrowing threshold. But the quirky situation in the US has made a once routine duty an opportunity for political mischief in a polarized age. Since the government spends more than it makes in revenue, it must borrow money to service its debt and pay for spending that Congress has already authorized. It has no problem getting more credit since the US pays its bills and has always had a stellar credit rating, despite one previous downgrade from the threat of default.
At least, that’s the way it has worked until now.
McCarthy beseeched his conference in a closed-door meeting on Tuesday to line up behind a bill that would raise the debt limit for a year but require a flurry of spending concessions from Biden. He styled the measure as an initial way of forcing the president to the negotiating table. But the bill is purely tactical since it’s got no chance of passing the Democratic-led Senate.
But in a sign of how difficult it will be for the speaker to even pull this gambit off, there were signs of internal disagreement on what should be in the package among GOP members.
Rep. Scott Perry, the chairman of the hardline House Freedom Caucus, was frustrated about a lack of specificity in the plan and wanted steeper cuts.
“I don’t know what’s in the package completely. That’s the issue,” Perry told reporters. Some members seem reluctant to commit so far. Conservative Rep. Tim Burchett told CNN’s Manu Raju, “I’m open to it but I’m still a ‘no’ vote.”
It is not unusual for various factions in a congressional majority to haggle over details before a final package is agreed. And House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry, a McCarthy ally, was confident the plan would pass the House. “The question is, what does the White House then do once we pass this package? We’ve clearly stated there is no clean debt ceiling that will pass the House,” he added. “So we’ll have the first opening offer here. And we’ll see if the president’s willing to come to the table and negotiate like previous presidents have.”
McHenry’s comment, however, reflected a big flaw in the GOP strategy since it relies on McCarthy’s belief that Biden will have no choice but to come to the table. The White House has insisted the House should do its job and pass a simple bill that only raises the borrowing limit
In effect, McCarthy has already set up a severe test of his leadership since there’s no guarantee that he can pass the measure in a House where he can only lose four votes and in which there are few signs the fractious GOP can agree on what programs to cut and by how much. And even if the measure does squeeze through the House in the coming weeks, it will likely be an idealized Republican product on which Biden and the Democratic Senate will never bite. Any subsequent package that emerged would almost certainly feature concessions that could splinter its GOP support.
Still, the speaker was typically bullish when he predicted Monday he’d have the votes to pass his initial bill.
“I think we got 218 to raise the debt ceiling,” McCarthy told CNN. “We’ve got a lot of consensus within the conference. We’ll get together and work through it.”
His assurances may not be very reassuring, however, because his similarly blithe predictions that he had the votes to win the speakership in January degenerated into a farcical process that saw him make huge concessions to his party’s most radical members and required 15 ballots before he finally won the job of his dreams.
But with the debt ceiling, it will be Americans’ livelihoods and the global economy, rather than McCarthy’s immediate political ambitions, that are on the line.
Republicans are yet to agree on their own demands
So far, Republicans seem to be having trouble negotiating with themselves, let alone Biden. Republican Rep. Dusty Johnson of South Dakota, who is helping to fashion the GOP’s position, said that while the party hopes to pass the initial bill next week, challenges remain.
“I think the hardest part is just that there are an unlimited number of conservative policy victories that, of course, we all want to see worked in,” Johnson told CNN’s Manu Raju. “The reality is that in a negotiation, you never get everything you want. And so I think our biggest issue right now is how do we squeeze these thousands of desires down to a manageable and credible number of asks?”
Another complication is that some members of the Republican conference have said they will never vote to raise the debt ceiling on principle – no matter what.
