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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been handed his second byelection upset in recent months, as the Bloc Québécois has just won LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, Que., a longtime Liberal seat in Montreal.
It was a better night for the parties that hold the balance of power in the current minority Parliament.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh managed to narrowly hold on to the NDP stronghold of Elmwood Transcona, Man., squashing Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s only real hope in these pair of races of picking up another riding.
After the shocking June loss to the Conservatives in the safe Liberal seat of Toronto-St. Paul’s prompted a wave of calls for Trudeau’s resignation and left some in his caucus uneasy about their electoral futures, the overnight defeat in Quebec is set to be the talk of Parliament Hill Tuesday.
Speaking about his party’s prospect of being the Liberals’ new minority dance partner, Bloc Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet told reporters Monday that he was “as hurried and impatient as anybody to go into an election,” as their “numbers seem pretty good.”
How the byelection victories for the Bloc and NDP impact their desire to help keep the embattled Liberals afloat or rather help trigger an early election will also be something to watch.
LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, Que. results
Vote-counting in the southwest Montreal riding went through the night and into the early morning hours on Tuesday due to each ballot being nearly a metre long.
It was the second attempt by the group the “Longest Ballot Committee” to draw attention to Trudeau’s broken electoral reform promise, resulting in more than 70 independent candidates running and ultimately securing the few hundred votes that stood between the Liberals holding the seat.
Ultimately, Bloc Québécois candidate-turned staffer Louis-Philippe Sauve came out on top, with 28 per cent of the vote, according to Elections Canada’s preliminary results.
Liberal hand-picked candidate Montreal councillor Laura Palestini came second with 27.2 per cent, followed by NDP candidate and well-known city councillor Craig Sauve who secured 26.1 per cent of the vote.
The Conservative candidate and business owner Louis Ialenti placed a distant fourth with 11.6 per cent, and Green candidate and activist Jency Mercier came fifth with just 1.8 per cent of the vote.
Looking further down the ballot, the People’s Party picked up more votes than the fledgling new Canadian Future Party.
This byelection was triggered by the January resignation of minister David Lametti following a cabinet shuffle. Lametti had represented the southwest Montreal riding since 2015.
In the last two federal elections the Liberals won the riding once held by former Liberal prime minister Paul Martin, with approximately 44 and 43 per cent of the vote share in 2019 and 2021 respectively, making Monday’s turnout for the party all the more notable.
Over the course of this closely-watched race, party leaders and prominent political figures spent time door-knocking to help boost their candidates’ chances.
One notable absence in this riding was Trudeau’s face, which the Liberals did not include on the election signs adorning telephone polls and lampposts. Defending the signs, the Liberal party said they were “the same design that we have used in previous Quebec byelections.”
A repeat presence in the riding though was Singh, who brought his caucus to town to help canvass in the final days of the campaign in hopes of reclaiming a seat the NDP did snag during the so-called 2011 “Orange Wave.” They ultimately came up approximate 600 votes short.
Elmwood-Transcona, Man. results
Heading west, Singh’s fortunes were better. NDP candidate and local business improvement leader Leila Dance held on to the longtime New Democrat-held riding, winning with 48.1 per cent of the vote according to Elections Canada’s preliminary results.
Conservative candidate and unionized electrical worker Colin Reynolds came second, with 44 per cent of the vote, a significant increase in the party’s 28 per cent showing in the 2021 general election.
And while this byelection was seen as a two-way race between the incumbent New Democrats and the Conservatives, Liberal candidate and retired teacher Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third.
He received just 4.8 per cent of votes, down from the 14.7 per cent of the vote the Liberals secured in the riding in the last election.
Green candidate and community organizer Nicolas Geddert placed fourth with 1.3 per cent support, and again in this riding the People’s Party got more votes than the Canadian Future Party.
The central fight in this campaign was over workers and union votes, and whether Singh or Poilievre had more credibility when it came to that question, seeing both parties put resources into attack ads taking aim at each other.
The NDP was also hopeful that Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew’s popularity would help the party’s fortunes in the riding, after the seat opened up because its previous occupant Daniel Blaikie stepped down to work for him.
