NBA Teams That Can Realistically Beat Vegas Win Projections
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Nikola Jokić and Jamal MurrayBart Young/NBAE via Getty Images
For teams with preseason games outside North America, practice for the 2024-25 NBA season starts this month.
That’s right. You almost made it. The draft, free agency and most of trade season (at least until February) is behind you. The offseason is almost over.
And that means it’s time to start thinking about over-unders for the upcoming campaign. FanDuel, as always, has us covered with projected win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams. And today, we’re going to break down some teams that can realistically exceed those projected totals.
Of course, that could be pretty broad. Technically, everyone could exceed their over-under. When you look at the totals, the word realistic might even come to mind for each team. Oddsmakers are eerily good at making all 30 of those numbers tempting.
But we’re going to narrow the field down to some favorites, while also eliminating most of the really low bars (like those of the Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards or other rebuilders).
Denver Nuggets: 51.5
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Russell WestbrookDerek White/WireImage
Seemingly every NBA fan and analyst outside of Denver (and apparently Las Vegas) is out on the Denver Nuggets. With last season’s second-round exit and the subsequent departure of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the sky, at least in the eyes of most, has already fallen.
The Nuggets’ desire to avoid entanglements with and the restrictions from the new collective bargaining agreement and its accompanying “second apron” have been loudly pooh-poohed on sites and platforms all over the internet.
But here’s the thing, Denver could absolutely be a better team than it was last season.
KCP’s likely replacement in the starting five, Christian Braun, is a rugged, always-engaged defender who’s more capable of guarding up a position or two. Last season, when he was on the floor with Nikola Jokić (still the best player in the world, by the way), his offensive production was surprisingly similar to Caldwell-Pope’s. And he’s nearly a decade younger.
The real difference, though, could be the bench. Non-Jokić minutes have blown past struggle and into full-blown catastrophe over the past few years, but the second unit has been overhauled for the better.
Russell Westbrook had 3.4 estimated wins (the cumulative version of Dunks and Threes’ catch-all metric, estimated plus-minus) last season, which is more than quadruple Reggie Jackson’s total.
Dario Šarić gives the Nuggets something they didn’t really have at all last season, a legitimate, every-night backup center. He might also be the closest thing to a Jokić facsimile (in terms of style, not production or impact, of course) Denver has had in the Jokić era.
Of course, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. will all be back too. And if the Nuggets get even marginal improvements from Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther, they could very easily be right back in the mix for the West’s top seed.
Golden State Warriors: 43.5
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Stephen Curry and Draymond GreenJared C. Tilton/Getty Images
The Golden State Warriors went 10-11 in games Draymond Green missed due to suspension last season. That means they played at a near-50-win pace the rest of the season.
It seems reductive, and maybe not all that likely to happen, but Golden State should have that over-under well within reach if Draymond can just avoid choking or smacking opponents in the head.
Of course, the Warriors lost Klay Thompson this season, but he’s not the impact defender he once was. And Buddy Hield can replace much (if not all) of the volume three-point shooting he provided.
Even when you don’t factor in the addition of Hield, there’s reason to believe Golden State can survive his departure. Last season, when Green and Stephen Curry played without Klay, the team was plus-6.1 points per 100 possessions.
Add young players on the upward side of their developmental trajectory in Trayce Jackson-Davis, Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga to that duo, and 43.5 starts to sound pretty low. Consider the additions of Hield, Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton, and it almost seems insulting.
But of course, while all those names are worth mentioning, a bet on this over is all about Curry. He’s now 36 years old, but he just reminded us, on a team full of superstars, that he’s still as capable of anyone at taking over individual games. He bailed Team USA out of a near-certain loss to Serbia in the semifinal of the Olympic tournament.
If he has one more year at or near that level, the Warriors can push into the upper 40s and maybe even threaten 50 wins.
Los Angeles Clippers: 40.5
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Tyronn Lue, James Harden and Kawhi LeonardDavid Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images
It wouldn’t be hard to argue the Los Angeles Clippers had the worst offseason in the NBA. Losing Paul George while staying over the salary cap left them no real way to meaningfully replace him.
They wound up having to cobble together a supporting cast for Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with minimum salaries and other cap exceptions that led to Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr. and Kevin Porter Jr.
A consistent 20-point-per night scorer who can also defend multiple positions and get threes up in volume essentially disappearing from the rotation is a potential disaster. That’s especially true when you consider Harden’s age (35) and Leonard’s struggles with durability.
But 40.5 is really low. Kawhi can still play at an All-NBA level when healthy. Harden averaged 22.2 points and 8.5 assists per 75 possessions when George was off the floor last season. Ivica Zubac is an underrated defensive anchor. Terance Mann seems primed for a breakout (even though he’s already 27). And Tyronn Lue is still one of the best coaches in the league.
They have to catch some breaks, particularly in the health department, but it’s hard to imagine that recipe resulting in a sub-.500 record.
Los Angeles Lakers: 43.5
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Austin Reaves, LeBron James and Anthony DavisAdam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images
This is another one that just feels low.
The Los Angeles Lakers won 47 games last season, and though LeBron James and Anthony Davis will both be a year older, we just saw a gold medal run in which those two were among Team USA’s best and most important players.
Any potential slippage from the duo could be overcome by marginal development from Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. Last season, when those four were all in the game, L.A. was plus-7.3 points per 100 possessions.
If that group plays at anywhere near that level, and Gabe Vincent and Jarred Vanderbilt enjoy a little better health, at least getting back to the mid-40s seems more than reasonable.
Then, if you throw in a “why did we all underrate him because of his age?” type of rookie campaign from Dalton Knecht (like Jaime Jaquez Jr. with the Miami Heat in 2023-24), an outside shot at 50 doesn’t sound too crazy.
Orlando Magic: 47.5
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Jalen Suggs, Paolo Banchero and Franz WagnerJeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images
The Orlando Magic just went 47-35, and their two best players (Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero) are 23 and 21, respectively. On natural, internal development alone, the team should probably be better.
But Orlando didn’t rely entirely on that this summer. The Magic landed one of this summer’s top free agents in KCP, who’s an ideal fit in a lineup with those two and Jalen Suggs. Caldwell-Pope is a low-usage, low-drama guard who’ll gladly take on tough difficult defensive assignments.
His outside shooting will pull defenders away from Banchero and Wagner’s drives, while also adding extra points to a couple possessions per game. Last season, Orlando was dead last in threes made.
Throw in the defensive versatility of Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Isaac and a dark-horse Rookie of the Year candidate in Tristan da Silva, and the Magic could be in the hunt for 50 wins in 2024-25.
Phoenix Suns: 47.5
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Devin Booker and Kevin DurantRocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images
There’s no question the Phoenix Suns failed to live up to the hype that surrounded the formation of their new big three last season.
They went all-in on Kevin Durant in 2022-23 and then went all-in again on Bradley Beal in the 2023 offseason, finished shy of 50 wins and got swept in the first round of the playoffs.
Most of 2023-24 was uneven and unhealthy, but the pendulum has likely swung too far on their expectations.
When the entire trio was on the floor, Phoenix was plus-7.5 points per 100 possessions. Add the other two starters, Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkić, and that net rating climbs to plus-10.4.
All five are back, and Phoenix somehow added two of the best value signings of the summer to them in Monte Morris and Tyus Jones.
The Suns now have two of the steadiest-handed 1s in the league. Both are ideal fits alongside ball-dominant guards and wings like Booker, Beal and Durant. They can initiate the offense without commandeering it. They take care of the ball. And they can hit open catch-and-shoot threes when defenses collapse on the stars.
Barring more injuries, Year 2 of this Suns era being better than the first almost seems like a given.
San Antonio Spurs: 36.5
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Victor Wembanyama and Devin VassellPhotos by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images
Very early in 2023-24, it became clear that the “Jeremy Sochan is a point guard” experiment wasn’t working. Playing Victor Wembanyama anywhere but the 5 also seemed silly. The limited role of Tre Jones was tough to figure out.
And then, for those who were scratching their heads over the moves (or lack thereof), there was likely a moment of realization. The San Antonio Spurs probably wanted to be bad last season. Adding another high draft pick to Wemby made sense.
But even if they want to follow that script again, Wembanyama might be too good to pull that off in 2024-25.
As a 20-year-old rookie, he performed at an All-NBA level. When San Antonio merely played him with a real point guard (Jones) and a decent wing (Devin Vassell), it was a whopping plus-10.2 points per 100 possessions.
And this season, with veterans Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes now on the team, it’ll be harder to avoid playing Wembanyama without a real point guard or decent wing.
So, while it would certainly be nice to have one more bad season and be able to pair the Spurs superstar with Cooper Flagg or Ace Bailey, there’s a pretty clear path to close to 40 wins here.
